Calm surface, busy mind: relief, FOMO, and the oil-yield feedback loop.

When a team scores early, Kalshi’s “Team Wins?” contracts can surge 10–25¢ in seconds.
It feels justified — the team is ahead, right?
But if you track enough games, you’ll see this reaction consistently overshoots the true change in win probability.

To the untrained eye, trading and betting look identical.
Both involve money, probabilities, and predictions.
But in reality, they’re separated by something far deeper — intention, structure, and expectation.

Don’t get stuck holding the bag.